When Two Republican Parties Notice Each Other - 12/30/24

In a two-party system like ours, there will always be multiple factions vying for control of both partisan assemblages. For decades, the Republican Party relied on the three-legged-stool of economic conservatives, social traditionalists and national security hawks developed by Ronald Reagan and maintained in a precarious balancing act until Donald Trump’s ascendancy. The Democrats maintained a similarly uneasy alliance over the same period between working class beer drinkers and suburban wine drinkers, until the wine drinkers expelled the beer drinkers and realized there weren’t enough wine drinkers to elect Kamala Harris.

So it should come as no surprise that even before Trump has been sworn in for his new term in office, the factionalization of his party has begun. But what may have been harder to predict is that the most important of these divisions is not between the incoming president’s friends and foes: the “never Trumpers” have become such an insignificant part of the GOP that Washington’s favorite parlor game is now guessing whether old-school conservatives can muster four votes out of a 53 member Senate caucus to defeat some of Trump’s most outlandish cabinet nominees. 

But the emerging split between two groups of Trump supporters – the grassroots MAGA loyalists and the less visible but more lucrative technology executives  – has already created a potentially damaging challenge for the new administration on one of their top policy priorities. With the possible exception of inflation, no issue was no more important to Trump’s election than immigration. And no policy division between him and Harris was as stark as border policy. But the technology sector (and the business community more broadly) has much different feelings about the desirability of new arrivals from other countries than most of Trump’s backers. That dichotomy came into full view over the Christmas and Hanukkah holidays last week.

The conflict started when Trump announced what would normally be a low-profile appointment to oversee his administration’s artificial intelligence policy. But a furor ignited among the MAGA base when it was reported that the appointee, venture capitalist and Indian émigré Sriram Krishnan, had previously advocated for an increase in green cards for technology workers. Before long, both Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy had both weighed into the debate. While trying to defend Krishnan, Musk and Ramaswamy managed to pour gasoline on a burning fire and an argument about one individual had erupted into a full-fledged conflagration over immigration, race, diversity. and a number of other hot-button topics.

Ramaswamy escalated the fight first, criticizing an American culture that he said “venerated mediocrity over excellence," and indicating that Trump’s presidency can jump-start an American culture that prioritizes “hard work over laziness.” Trump supporters who were motivated by his hard-line approach to immigration saw this as an attack not just on differences of policy but on their racial and cultural identity. Led by former White House advisor Steve Bannon and online personality Laura Loomer, MAGA loyalists responded harshly, accusing Musk and Ramaswamy of demeaning and diminishing American workers. 

Loomer’s references to “third world invaders” and “the technocratic takeover of our country” were particularly flammable. But Musk then raised the stakes even further, warning about the “war” he would launch against “hateful, unrepentant racists.” These differences do not appear resolvable anytime soon, and although Trump did issue a broad pro-visa statement over the weekend, he does not seem eager to take sides with either faction in his unwieldy and increasingly restive coalition. Given the number of House conservatives who opposed his call for a debt ceiling increase last week, the most likely outcome is no legislative action at all on immigration policy beyond border control for the foreseeable future.

That would suit Trump’s grassroots supporters just fine. The question is whether a Musk-led tech alliance will be willing to lose this fight, especially with an even bigger looming battle over tariffs coming up soon. The debate over trade policy will divide Trump’s allies along similar lines, and it’s hard to see Silicon Valley continuing to write large checks if they lose on both of their top priorities. Trump is also promising plenty of other incentives for them – most notably tax cuts and deregulation. But the isolationism that fuels his populist support runs directly against the needs of the business and technology leaders who fund his campaigns. 

Musk vs MAGA looks like a war without any winners. At least not in Trump-land.