When Trump and Musk Figure Out Who’s In Charge — 12/23/24

During this fall’s campaign, Donald Trump let it be known that his favorite word is “tariffs.” But that seems more like a negotiating ploy than a genuine affection. The events of last week in Washington and Mar-a-Lago have reminded us that his most cherished word – and state of being – is actually “chaos.”

Trump is not just a chaos agent. He is a creator and a cultivator of chaos, and he has learned throughout his various careers that by disrupting the more predictable and orderly lives of those around him, he can leverage the ensuing unpredictability for his own benefit. Over the last several months, the debates over his policy goals and personal conduct may have overshadowed the most notable aspect of his first four years in office: the impulsiveness, the volatility and the instability of his presidency. 

But as Congress worked to avert a government shutdown last week, Trump emerged from a relatively conventional transition period to demonstrate the commotion and the distraction of which he is uniquely capable. Beleaguered House Speaker Mike Johnson was prepared on Wednesday morning to move forward with a spending bill about which very few stakeholders were enthusiastic, but that had sufficient support to pass. But that was before Trump’s occasional governing partner Elon Musk weighed in with a daylong fusillade of social media postings that excoriated and ultimately destroyed the legislation. By the time Trump and his other occasional governing partner J.D. Vance were heard in public late in the day, the bill was dead and Johnson was frantically scrambling to piece together an alternative.

Some Republicans theorized that a government shutdown could work to their benefit, and Trump himself argued that the blame would fall on outgoing president Joe Biden. But in retrospect, it appears that most GOP leaders understood that they would be held responsible for such a cataclysmic event taking place just before the holidays. (The news coverage of U.S. troops not receiving their paychecks during Christmas week would have been a less-than-ideal way for Trump to begin his second presidency.) So the near-miss itself is not the most important occurrence of the week, but rather what the episode tells us to expect from over the next four years once Trump has returned to office.

It’s worth noting that while Trump and Musk both harshly criticized Johnson’s original deal, the final agreement looked a lot more like the demands of the tech mogul than the wishes of the incoming president. Almost everything that Musk had opposed – most notably a pay raise for Congress and various types of spending programs included to attract Democratic votes – was gone. (Also missing were proposed restrictions on Chinese investment that would have caused significant harm to his own business interests.) By contrast, Trump’s ultimatum that the nation’s debt ceiling be increased before he took office had evaporated into a toothless commitment for future action.

There’s no way to know whether Musk’s original assault was done at Trump’s behest or whether he was free-lancing. If the two men had coordinated their attacks on Johnson, then this might be an early indicator of how Trump intends to utilize his new best friend’s social media platform. If Musk can mobilize MAGA true believers that quickly and efficiently on other Trump priorities, he will be an invaluable communications tool for the new administration.

But if Musk did not discuss his plans with Trump before launching, the potential for trouble between the two men could create an unforeseen obstacle for the new president. Trump clearly enjoys an ally with Musk’s power and reach: it’s unlikely he’ll be as enthusiastic if that ally makes it a habit to go rogue.

Musk seems smart enough to understand how much more he will benefit by allowing Trump to believe that the nation’s commander-in-chief is the most powerful man in the world. But sometimes ego can get in the way of intelligence. The question is which of these two egos is justified when it comes to the very different roles of senior and junior partner – and which of them is due for a comeuppance in 2025.