When Trump Looks Almost, Possibly but Not Quite Vulnerable - 1/24/25

We learned last week that Donald Trump is not unstoppable. But no one has figured out how to stop him.

If you watched carefully, you may have seen the first nascent efforts to push back at the president. Senate Democrats staged a filibuster to force their Republican counterparts not to cast votes in favor of reducing government spending on the elderly and impoverished, while similarly decreasing the tax burden on billionaires. After several hours, the Trump spending plan was passed completely intact, but the Democrats’ delay tactics did indicate their first steps toward a coherent opposition messaging strategy. 

At the same time, congressional Republicans were seeing the first signs of pushback from their supporters, who have begun showing up at town hall meetings and contacting GOP offices in large numbers to express their unhappiness with the scale and sweep of Elon Musk’s efforts to dramatically shrink the size of the federal government. As Politico (Lean Left bias) points out, the government has a sizable presence in every congressional district in the country, and that even some extremely conservative constituencies will be heavily impacted by Musk’s cuts. Again, the Republicans willing to stand up against Trump were few and far between, but the protests are a potential early warning sign of the political cross-pressures that many party regulars will face in next year’s midterm elections.

Neither of these embryonic exertions resulted in much, if any, tangible change in the speed or the trajectory of Trump’s march forward. Between now and November 2026, it appears that the judiciary will be the only significant obstacle to the president’s agenda. But these are the seedlings that may end up growing into the political foliage that will define next year’s campaign season.

There are two other aspects of Trump’s agenda will likely have an even greater impact on both the 2026 midterms and the next presidential election. His calls for more aggressive immigration and trade policy were keys to his victory last fall. Both issues energized his base and attracted strong backing from swing voters. Both speak to the way our country regards itself at this moment in our history, and Trump has demonstrated his affinity for identifying and cultivating these feelings for almost a decade since his first announcement of candidacy in 2015.

But the president and his Administration will be tested on these issues in the months ahead. Public opinion polls that demonstrate broad support for mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and for increased tariffs on foreign imports reflect a growing nationalism and isolationism among voters. Trump has ridden those waves very adroitly since his ascension into presidential politics. But a more careful look at those poll numbers indicate that voters who applaud his more sweeping goals are more circumspect when the questions get more specific.

Example One: Polls showed that almost 60 percent of voters supported mass deportations last November. But these same polls also indicate that most of those voters want only undocumented migrants who have committed crimes unrelated to their residency status to be forced to leave: equally large majorities oppose deportation from those without other criminal records. NBC News (Lean Left) has reported that more than 40 percent of new detainees have neither a criminal conviction nor face any criminal charges. Democrats have yet to find a way to talk about immigration policy in a way that resonates with the political center and does not infuriate their base. If they do, this argument could be a potent one.

Example Two: More than sixty percent of Americans say that they support higher tariffs on incoming goods from other countries. But even greater numbers believe that these increased fees will also lead to higher prices. This means that there are all a small number of Trump loyalists who believe that higher prices are a worthwhile tradeoff in exchange for the goal of growing the U.S. manufacturing base. But many voters who supported Trump because of his pledge to reduce inflation may be less satisfied when their household budgets are further stretched by rising costs for groceries, housing and new and used cars. It’s hard to see Democrats doing too much to highlight trade policy, given their own close ties with organized labor. But Trump tariffs could also complicate his party’s electoral aspirations.

Even as his early poll numbers have dropped slightly, Trump still commands an extraordinary amount of political power. But a nervous set of allies and a more intelligible opposition could make his path forward somewhat more difficult.