When President Vance Picks a Fight - 3/3/25
Volodymyr Zelensky never saw it coming, and he never had a chance. When the Ukrainian president arrived at the White House last Friday, he assumed he was going to participate in an enhanced photo opportunity. He and Donald Trump would pose for the cameras, exchange a few bromides and veiled challenges, and sign an agreement that would give the United States access to Ukraine’s rare minerals in exchange for this country’s continued economic and military support. Zelensky knew that he was unlikely to get the security guarantees he was seeking, but saw the public meeting as an opportunity to make his case to Trump and to the American people why a continued commitment to help defend Ukraine against Russia would be in their own best interest.
Trump seemed at least somewhat comfortable with the planned proceedings. In the previous six days, he had been visited by the leaders of Poland, France and Great Britain, all making a strong case on Zelensky’s behalf. Just one day earlier, Trump had backed off his earlier reference to Zelensky as a “dictator”, and the first twenty minutes of this event had proceeded amicably. Trump had committed to continue U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine and was preparing to end the public portion of the program, so the two men could address their differences behind closed doors before the signing ceremony. And then, J.D. Vance stepped in.
Vance has been a leader of the isolationist wing of the Republican Party and a pronounced Ukraine skeptic since his initial Senate campaign for Senate 2022. He is seen by many MAGA conservatives as the heir to Trump’s legacy, and he recognizes both the growing strain of nationalism in the country and the benefits to be drawn from positioning himself as the leading voice of that movement. His scathing condemnation of Europe’s political leadership in Munich last month was an unprecedented attack by a high-ranking American in the NATO era, but his intervention at the critical moment of the Trump-Zelensky meeting may have even greater long-term global impact.
The Vice President used Zelensky’s response to a reporter about Russian President Vladimir Putin as an opportunity to harshly criticize the Ukrainian leader, and did so in a way that seemed specifically designed to wound Trump’s pride and draw him into the argument. Vance disparaged Zelensky for his disrespect and challenged him for never having expressed gratitude for U.S. support. Both references were carefully calculated to pierce Trump’s notoriously thin skin and goad him into the fray.
Unsurprisingly, Trump launched his rhetorical missiles. Equally, unsurprisingly, Zelensky launched back. Soon, the two men were engaged in an unprecedented public brawl, and Trump’s goal of a profitable economic agreement and Zelensky’s hopes for progress toward further military backing were both lying in pieces on the Oval Office carpet. With a few well-placed gibes, Vance had incited Trump, blind sided Zelensky and deftly undermined the possibility for the two countries to work together in any meaningful way for the foreseeable future.
Zelensky is a wartime president. Trump is a deal-maker. Both men are accustomed to deferential treatment and both have outsized egos as a result. Neither one likes being questioned or challenged, nor do they respond well to provocation. Vance knew this and played the two presidents against each other with near-perfect precision. The result is not just a significant worsening of the relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine but an even more dramatic overhaul of the American-European alliance that has withstood two world wars and a Cold War but now is on the verge of a fundamental redefinition. Earlier in the week, newly-elected German leader Friedrich Merz has called for a European “independence from the USA”. In the days after Zelensky left Washington, European heads-of-state ostentatiously embraced him and pledged their continuing support for Ukraine.
Trump and Zelensky both have a strong incentive to move past last week’s fireworks. The American president promised to end the war during last year’s campaign and that will be much harder to do without Ukraine’s cooperation. And while Zelensky felt that he needed to stand up to Trump and Vance on behalf of his country, his conciliatory public statements over the weekend suggest that he recognizes that he can not afford to allow the U.S. to align itself even more fully with Russia. So these discussions are likely to begin again (albeit on an even less favorable landscape for Ukraine). But predicting where the U.S. and Europe go next—together or separately—is much harder to predict.