When Trump Returns - 1/20/25
Over the years, voters have measured Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. (And in case you have forgotten, against Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz and Ron DeSantis.) His fiercest critics compare him to Hitler: his most devoted believers compare him to Jesus. But today, let’s compare Donald Trump to himself.
More specifically, it may be helpful to look at the Trump who is moving back into the White House this week alongside the one who was elected eight years ago. When Trump first assumed the presidency, he had never held public office before and his inexperience was evident. He selected a team of advisors known for their ties to the Republican establishment, and quickly learned that they were not always committed to his agenda. He never developed reliable relationships with GOP congressional leaders, and frequently found himself at odds with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. And his lack of familiarity with the ways of Washington or the nature of a federal government bureaucracy often undermined his efforts to fashion public policy.
The version of President Trump who has reclaimed the Oval Office is a more experienced — and far more confident — chief executive. He is also much better prepared, having spent his four years in exile assembling a team of loyalists and developing a more focused set of legislative priorities. And he is far more comfortable on the world stage, asserting himself in the weeks since the election on issues relating to Ukraine, Gaza, Mexico, Canada, and other global hot spots. It’s entirely possible that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas would not have occurred without his intervention, and world leaders in Europe, Latin America and Asia are already scrambling to react to his almost-daily proclamations.
Just as noticeable is the difference in the way that Trump is being treated here in the United States. Unlike eight years ago, when Democrats spearheaded a fierce resistance to the new president at every turn, his opponents are now in disarray. His victory can no longer be dismissed as a quirk of the electoral college, and he attracted support from many traditional left-leaning constituencies. As a result, the Democrats are much more circumspect in how and when to attack him. The party appears to be split between those who will seek opportunities to cooperate with him on issues like immigration, tariffs, and manufacturing and those who are still fully committed to a no-holds-barred fight against him. Given the departure of longtime party fixtures like Biden, Harris, and Nancy Pelosi from the stage, the Democrats seem to be in search of both a message and messengers. The result is an opposition party lacking both unity and a clear strategy, both of which exaggerate Trump’s dominance of the political landscape.
The nation’s business leaders appear to have reconsidered their approach over the last eight years as well. Back in 2016, the mainstream business community tried to keep their distance from Trump, either pretending he did not exist or hoping that his presence was a temporary aberration. But corporate America has now rushed to Mar-a-Lago to pay tribute, and they have embraced his proposed tax cuts and deregulation with fervent enthusiasm. Even the grassroots opposition is subdued: the turnout for last weekend’s rallies to protest Trump’s inauguration were noticeably smaller and less animated than four years ago.
More broadly, the biggest difference between the outset of the two Trump presidencies is the relative calm with which his return has been greeted by friend and foe alike. Unlike his first election, when the level of shock and incredulity in reaction to his victory completely upended the political landscape, this post-election and pre-inaugural time period has been relatively conventional. (As conventional as a transition in which the president-elect attempts to buy Greenland, invade Panama, and ingest Canada can be.) He also now enjoys majority support on border policy, transgender issues, and broader suspicion toward the political establishment and international engagement.
Neither the terror from Democrats nor nervousness from non-MAGA Republicans is anywhere near as palpable as was the case when Trump I took office. He still makes outrageous statements, proposes audacious and unsettling policy change, and dominates the media landscape like no other political figure in modern history. But as Trump II returns to center stage, we seem to have normalized him to some degree as a disruptive but somewhat less alien invader.
The question is whether Trump has changed in the last eight years — or whether the rest of us have.