When JD Vance Can Do What Kamala Harris Can Not - 9/30/24

Kamala Harris was spoiling for a second debate with Donald Trump even before the first one ended. Within minutes after their early September face-off had concluded, the Harris team had already issued a call for a rematch. Trump dismissed their challenge as a loser spoiling for a second chance, but it’s more likely that Harris’ advisors recognized that they would not get another opportunity for their candidate to appear before such a large nationwide audience unless they could persuade Trump to participate in another debate. 

As I mentioned in last week’s column, Harris’ team understands that a large portion of the electorate does not feel like they know enough about the vice president’s agenda—especially on economic issues. They also know that ads, speeches and very rare interviews will not reach nearly as many voters who still need more information before deciding how to cast their ballots. Harris has been gradually closing the gap with Trump on which candidate is more trusted on the economy, but with five weeks left before Election Day, she is running out of time to fill in those blanks.

That’s why her campaign has stepped up its efforts to pressure Trump back onto the debate stage. That’s why they were running ads during college football games last weekend taunting him for his refusal to debate (the ads featured an excerpt from Harris’ speeches where she challenges him by saying, “If you’ve got something to say to me, say it to my face.”) And it’s why they even hired a small plane to fly over the stadium where Trump was attending the Alabama-Georgia football game last Saturday with a banner that said, “Trump’s Punting on 2nd Debate”.

It’s entirely possible that Harris’ efforts to goad Trump back onto the debate stage could backfire. The former president has no shortage of self-regard, and he is especially reluctant to take actions that will appear as if he were pressured to do so. Insulting Trump’s manhood could draw him out, but making it look like he is succumbing to outside coercion could make him even more determined to resist. Above all, Trump detests weakness and the appearance of weakness. Allowing voters to think that he was bullied by his opponent (especially a female opponent) could be untenable for him

But Harris may have an ace in her pocket. Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, will be debating Trump’s vice presidential nominee, J.D. Vance, this week, and it is entirely possible that Vance could unwittingly become the foil that motivates Trump to sign on for another face-off with Harris. 

If Vance struggles in his encounter with Walz and Trump’s campaign suffers even a minor drop-off in public support, it’s not difficult to see Trump— who appears to believe that he did win his debate with Harris —convincing himself that he must step forward to rescue his own campaign. His most reliable focus group for these types of decisions tends to be the audiences at his rallies. If he were to ask those diehard advocates in his speeches whether he should take on Harris again, it’s safe to assume that the response would be one of unreserved and raucous approval. The sycophants and yes-men with whom he spends his time away from his public events will also enthusiastically endorse the idea, likely outweighing the advice of Trump’s most seasoned and more cautious professional advisors.

On the other hand, let’s suppose that Vance emerges strongly from the debate, judged by most outside observers to have gotten the best of Walz. In that circumstance, Trump might be even more motivated to sign on for an additional head-to-head with Harris. As much as his ego might benefit from the prospect of saving his own campaign, the unacceptable public perception that his running mate rescued him might be an even greater incentive to step forward again himself. 

A strong Vance would create the narrative that it was the running mate rather than Trump himself who put their campaign on track to victory. And that might be too much for Trump to bear. More than anything that Harris does or says to entice him into a second debate, his need to have the last word might be an even greater lure.

Trump will certainly be watching Tuesday night. How he responds on Wednesday morning could define the last month of the campaign.