When Harris Nails the Easy Part - 8/26/24

Kamala Harris has just completed the most successful month of any presidential candidate in modern history. Donald Trump has just had the worst month of any presidential candidate within memory. That said, they are tied in the polls.

Harris’ convention could not possibly have gone better for her. The momentum and unity that Democrats have displayed since she replaced Joe Biden as the head of their ticket continued to soar in Chicago last week. Surrogates such as Oprah Winfrey and Michelle Obama raised the roof, nervous progressives kept their voices down, and Biden himself helpfully exited the premises after his Monday night/Tuesday morning speech concluded. By the time Harris spoke on Thursday night, the soon-to-be former president was nothing more than a faint memory and the recipient of an ongoing series of enthusiastically received but perfunctory thank-yous for his service. If Biden had still been on the premises by the end of the week, his party may have given him a gold watch.

Harris herself did well, but she has always been much better speaking from a script than answering questions from reporters or parrying criticism from her opponents. She effectively surfed the wave of enthusiasm, perhaps not as effectively as Oprah or the Obamas but well enough to extend her honeymoon into its fifth week, which means that she is already one third of the way through her candidacy. And Trump continues to cooperate as well, largely ignoring the pleas of his allies to forego his personal attacks on Harris and focus more closely on the issues on which she is weakest. At some point, Trump will set aside (most of) his insults about Harris’ identity and intelligence to talk about her vulnerabilities on inflation, crime and border policy. But for now, his inability to adjust from a campaign against the fading Biden to a vitalized opponent has kept him from even slowing Harris’ monthlong ascent. 

Yet the race still remains extremely close, dead even in many polls, and Harris’ small lead in others shows her with numbers lower than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden four years ago. Harris has been tremendously successful at motivating the Democratic Party base, most notably young people, nonwhite voters, and women who were notably unenthused by Biden’s candidacy. But she has not yet begun a sustained effort to reach out to swing voters in the center of the political spectrum, and her support among seniors and white- and blue-collar workers is slightly lower than Biden’s. “Joy” and “We Won’t Go Back” are messages designed to energize Democratic loyalists, which they have accomplished very effectively. But the undecided voters who will choose the next president will need something more from her.

The first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump will take place in two weeks, and it is impossible to overstate that evening’s importance to the race’s outcome. Harris’ introduction to the American people last week could not have gone better, but it took place on the most favorable terms possible. The next time voters have the chance to watch her that closely, Trump will be doing everything in his power to make sure her impression is a much less favorable one.

We know from Trump’s initial debate with Biden four years ago that his natural instinct is to overdo it, to attack his opponent so relentlessly and so gratuitously that the voters dismiss him for his overbearing histrionics. (That might have also been the chief takeaway from this summer’s debate had he not been overshadowed by Biden’s ineffectiveness.) So it’s entirely possible that Trump’s bombast will allow Harris to win the debate simply by remaining calm and poised. 

But Harris has historically been less comfortable in unscripted settings. It’s telling that she has not done a sit-down media interview since announcing her candidacy. She has committed to one such encounter by the end of the month, so we should see in the days ahead how she handles herself. The strategy of avoiding a potential pitfall is understandable given the energy surrounding her campaign since its inception: there’s no reason to slow down a speeding bandwagon. But if the vice president’s advisors were comfortable with her sitting down for a sustained conversation with a respected journalist, it would have happened by now.

There is no doubt about it, Harris is on a roll. And she could ride this wave all the way to the White House. But the path forward is about to become much more challenging.