When a Candidate Has To Choose Too — 10/28/24

Kamala Harris began her political career with a daring, even brazen, maneuver in which she challenged and ultimately defeated her own boss to replace him as San Francisco’s District Attorney. But within months of taking office, she found herself in the middle of an emotionally and politically searing controversy. When Harris decided not to pursue the death penalty against the assailant who murdered police officer Isaac Espinoza, the backlash against her was brutal, not just from Espinoza’s fellow officers and other public safety professionals, but even from many of the city’s and state’s other leading Democratic politicians.

Since then, Harris has become an extraordinarily cautious politician. In her ascent from state Attorney General to Senator to Vice President, she has always been an extremely risk-averse candidate, both reluctant to take clear positions on controversial matters but even more hesitant to take chances rhetorically with bold language. California’s deep blue political landscape allowed her to play it safe, relying on her biography and well-funded advertising to stimulate voters. But her 2020 presidential campaign floundered, largely because of her unwillingness to take a definitive stand on contentious issues. After the original burst of enthusiasm surrounding her announcement this year, this same difficulty has left many of her supporters frustrated and many swing voters uncertain of her goals and priorities if elected.

But if Harris wants to win the presidency, she is now at a point where she needs to make a difficult decision—without hedging her bets. With barely a week remaining before voting concludes, she is locked in an excruciatingly close race against Donald Trump, and the message with which she concludes her campaign will likely determine the outcome. Unlike Trump, who elicits extremely strong and unwavering opinions from almost every American, many voters are still deciding what they think about Harris. She has a matter of days to help them make up their minds.

Harris’ campaign has billed her speech on the Ellipse in Washington, DC on Tuesday night as her “closing argument”, but her communications over the days following that address are just as important to reaching those last voters. Specifically, there are three separate messages that have the potential to secure the support she needs to win:

1)   The economy: Despite historically low unemployment, many Americans are still scarred by the high inflation they have experienced over the last few years and the jarring changes to the economic landscape the nation is experiencing. Trump is still preferred by more voters on economic issues, but Harris has closed that gap considerably since entering the race. She could finish up by pushing her credentials on these issues to win over voters uncertain about their economic futures.

2)   Abortion rights: Harris’ greatest strength in the electorate is with female voters, and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade two years ago has moved the abortion issue to or near the top of most pressing concerns for many women who have supported Trump in the past. It’s also a key motivator for young and non-white women, from whom Harris needs an especially high turnout, and was the centerpiece of her Texas rally with Beyoncé last Friday night.

3)   Trump’s fitness for office: Former White House chief of staff John Kelly’s comments about Trump have super-charged an argument against Trump that his opponents have used since the beginning of his first campaign. Biden framed this threat as a danger to democracy before withdrawing from the race, and Harris' campaign has recently returned to this type of heightened language. It’s likely to be the centerpiece of her Tuesday night Capitol speech, evoking memories of the January 6 riots.

All three of these topics have the potential to excite and persuade the voters Harris needs, and she will stress all three heavily over the next week. But undecided voters tend to pay much less attention to politics than their fellow Americans, so the window of opportunity through which to communicate to them is decidedly small. 

Harris’ temptation will be to play it safe and put roughly equal amounts of time and energy behind all three of them. But an all-of-the-above strategy might be the worst of all worlds, as none of these messages would be heard as loudly and clearly as they need to achieve her desired impact. Any one of these alternatives has the potential to win the election. Let’s see if she sets aside her trademark caution and commits herself to the one that matters most to her.